Category: Authored

20 posts categorized as "Authored"

Quarterly Investment Review, January 2024 Volatility and the Markets

February 8, 2024

By Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA®, Partner, Director of Investments Markets closed 2023 with historically strong performance. US stocks mostly erased 2022’s losses. Bonds closed the year up on the back of a 5% rally in November and December but were unable to recoup 2022’s losses. The fall rally was touched off by Federal Reserve Chairman…

Read More

Volatility and the Markets 3rd Quarter 2023

October 31, 2023

By Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA, Partner 2023’s third quarter saw a retreat across markets after the significant run-up of the year’s first half. The most prominent technology companies of the S&P 500, known as the “Magnificent Seven,” made up the great majority of the index’s 13.2% gain for 2023 so far; comparatively, the Dow Jones…

Read More

Inflation & Interest Rates – Expectations vs Reality

August 15, 2023

By Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA, Partner 2nd Quarter 2023 The first half of 2023 was highlighted by a substantial rally in risk assets, despite a mini bank crisis and a year’s worth of negative prognostications about an impending recession. On July 12th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose just…

Read More

Preparing for Summer

April 5, 2023

Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA®- Partner- Director of Investments Legendary investor Warren Buffett is famous for saying “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Today, the “tide going out” is the rapid rise in interest rates which the Federal Reserve has implemented to combat inflation. When combined with leverage, the…

Read More

The Most Anticipated Recession in History, Coming From a Media Outlet Near You

March 13, 2023

Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA®- Partner, Director of Investments Let’s dive right in to where our economy stands today. GDP growth for the fourth quarter 2022 was 2.9%. The January labor market report showed nonfarm payrolls rising significantly, adding 517,000 jobs (vs. expectations of 189,000). The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.4% in…

Read More


December 30, 2022

Joseph R Weiland, CRP®, Managing Partner In 1849 the state of California became populated by people that rushed to the state’s goldmines in the Sierra Foothills. There was news of gold in the hills and the gold fever caused them to walk away from current work, families, and lives to chase the dream of riches. They were…

Read More

The State of the Economy, the State of the Markets

October 27, 2022

October 2022 By Arthur Swalley, CIMA® Partner Few times in recent history have presented such a dramatic difference between the real economy and the behavior of markets. Let’s examine the data to figure out if the widely predicted (and in some quarters, declared) recession is actually here.September economic reports show that on the job front,…

Read More


October 6, 2022

A round of applause to Cody Makela, CFP®, partner, for being chosen and profiled by Pacific Coast Business Times as an up-and-coming business leader in this year’s “40 Under 40.” A ninth generation Santa Barbara resident, born and raised, whose family history dates back to the founding of the city, Cody joined Arlington Financial Advisors…

Read More

Bear Market Update

July 8, 2022

June 2022 By Arthur Swalley, CIMA® Partner In April, we wrote about Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Opportunity. Since that writing, we have certainly experienced the short-term volatility, with the S&P 500 index entering a bear market – down over -20% from its peak. What investors think of as safe havens were not, with the Barclay’s…

Read More

Investment Commentary Q1 2022 Why Does Diversification Work? 

February 2, 2022

Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA® – Director of Investments  Why Does Diversification Work?  The past two years in the capital markets are a textbook example of how diversification works. Being thoughtfully distributed among multiple asset classes has brought strong returns, without suffering the extreme volatility of each of those independently fluctuating asset classes.  More importantly, why…

Read More