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Recent news and insights from the team at Arlington Financial Advisors.
Volatility and the Markets 3rd Quarter 2023
October 31, 2023
By Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA, Partner 2023’s third quarter saw a retreat across markets after the significant run-up of the year’s first half. The most prominent technology companies of the S&P 500, known as the “Magnificent Seven,” made up the great majority of the index’s 13.2% gain for 2023 so far; comparatively, the Dow Jones…
Inflation & Interest Rates – Expectations vs Reality
August 15, 2023
By Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA, Partner 2nd Quarter 2023 The first half of 2023 was highlighted by a substantial rally in risk assets, despite a mini bank crisis and a year’s worth of negative prognostications about an impending recession. On July 12th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose just…
Preparing for Summer
April 5, 2023
Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA®- Partner- Director of Investments Legendary investor Warren Buffett is famous for saying “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Today, the “tide going out” is the rapid rise in interest rates which the Federal Reserve has implemented to combat inflation. When combined with leverage, the…
The Most Anticipated Recession in History, Coming From a Media Outlet Near You
March 13, 2023
Arthur G. Swalley, CIMA®- Partner, Director of Investments Let’s dive right in to where our economy stands today. GDP growth for the fourth quarter 2022 was 2.9%. The January labor market report showed nonfarm payrolls rising significantly, adding 517,000 jobs (vs. expectations of 189,000). The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.4% in…
Goldrush
December 30, 2022
Joseph R Weiland, CRP®, Managing Partner In 1849 the state of California became populated by people that rushed to the state’s goldmines in the Sierra Foothills. There was news of gold in the hills and the gold fever caused them to walk away from current work, families, and lives to chase the dream of riches. They were…
The State of the Economy, the State of the Markets
October 27, 2022
October 2022 By Arthur Swalley, CIMA® Partner Few times in recent history have presented such a dramatic difference between the real economy and the behavior of markets. Let’s examine the data to figure out if the widely predicted (and in some quarters, declared) recession is actually here.September economic reports show that on the job front,…
CONGRATULATIONS CODY MAKELA, CFP®
October 6, 2022
A round of applause to Cody Makela, CFP®, partner, for being chosen and profiled by Pacific Coast Business Times as an up-and-coming business leader in this year’s “40 Under 40.” A ninth generation Santa Barbara resident, born and raised, whose family history dates back to the founding of the city, Cody joined Arlington Financial Advisors…
Bear Market Update
July 8, 2022
June 2022 By Arthur Swalley, CIMA® Partner In April, we wrote about Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Opportunity. Since that writing, we have certainly experienced the short-term volatility, with the S&P 500 index entering a bear market – down over -20% from its peak. What investors think of as safe havens were not, with the Barclay’s…
Short Term Risk, Long Term Opportunity
May 9, 2022
April 2022 By Arthur Swalley, CIMA® Partner The first quarter of 2022 brought seemingly every major category of investment and headline risk to the forefront. Global stock and bond markets were challenged with interest rate risk, stock valuation risk, and inflation risk, with a topping of geopolitical risk (a European land war) adding to the…